Earthquake Risk Model Basel-Stadt

The project Earthquake Risk Model Basel-Stadt (ERM-BS) 2019 to 2023 aims at developing a site specific seismic hazard and risk framework for the Swiss canton of Basel-Stadt. It is a follow-up of the projects Microzonation (2003 - 2009) and Basel Erdbebenvorsorge (2013 - 2016) funded by the canton of Basel-Stadt in its effort to set an earthquake risk mitigation and crisis management strategy for the canton. This project makes a step forward by attempting to develop a 3D integrated geological-seismological model of Basel, which will explicitly account for the complex geological conditions at the surface and at depth. Ground motion amplification models will be developed and validated with earthquake recordings from the permanent and temporary seismic network in the region.

Another aspect of the project involves calculation of risk scenarios by considering building stock, their vulnerability and value, and population of the entire city. A rigorous database of residential, commercial and industrial buildings along with the information related to their structural and non-structural attributes will be compiled. A methodology will be developed to assign different typologies to this large dataset of buildings. Capacity curves and vulnerability parameters will be established for each typology. Finally, detailed risk scenarios based on historical seismicity as well as de-aggregation of the regional seismic hazard will be simulated. One particular focus of the project will be the quantification of uncertainties in the different steps of the process of calculating earthquake risk.

Results obtained from this project are expected to serve the cantonal authorities to adopt proper risk prevention measures (e.g., to identify critical area, to carry out cost-benefit analysis for damage mitigation) as well to plan emergency response strategy (e.g., to rapidly assess damages and identify affected areas) in case of an earthquake occurrence.