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PSHA Workshop

Future directions for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at a local, national and transnational scale

5 to 7 September 2017 in Lenzburg, Switzerland

hazard lenzburg
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Objectives

This scientific workshop brings together about 100 to 150 leading experts on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) from around the globe to discuss the current state of practice as well as future directions. The workshop will adopt a holistic point of view (i.e. interdisciplinary, multiple spatial- and temporal scales), critically reflecting all elements of modern PSHA.

Distinguished keynote speakers will introduce a range of topics, but we also call for solicited contributions (oral and poster). We will allocate sufficient time for discussions and networking, and the beautiful castle in Lenzburg offers a unique setting.

Revisiting past and ongoing site-specific projects on local, national or transnational scales, we strive to draw conclusions for future PSHA projects. We will also reflect on emerging challenges, such as time-dependence, earthquake interactions, anthropogenic seismicity, model validation, simulation based PSHA, communication of hazard results and procedural requirements for ensuring robustness, especially in the context of PSHA for critical facilities. On day three, we will focus specifically on the needs of community and harmonization projects, such as the next-generation European PSHA.

  • Prof. Norm Abrahamson, PG&E
  • Prof. John Adams, Geological Survey of Canada
  • Prof. Fabrice Cotton, GFZ
  • Dr. Helen Crowley, Eurocentre
  • Prof. Donat Fäh, ETH Zurich
  • Dr. Ned Field, USGS
  • Dr. Matt Gerstenberger, GNS Science
  • Prof. Domenico Giardini, ETH Zurich
  • Prof. David Jackson, UCLA
  • Dr. Dalguer Luis, swissnuclear
  • Prof. Martin Mai, KAUST
  • Dr. Warner Marzocchi, INGV
  • Dr. Marco Pagani, GEM
  • Prof. Kyriazis Pitilakis, Aristotle Unversity
  • Prof. Erdal Safak, Bogazici University
  • Dr. Danijel Schorlemmer, GFZ
  • Prof. Seth Stein, Northwestern University
  • Dr. Gianluca Valensise, INGV
  • Prof. Stefan Wiemer, ETH Zurich

The workshop will be structured in six sessions:

1 Lessons Learned

Tuesday morning, 5 September

  • Recent PSHA studies at local, national and transnational level e.g. SHARE, EMME, China, US, Canada, Italy, France, Switzerland, Latin America, New Zealand, GEM global effort

2 Seismogenic Source Modelling

Tuesday afternoon, 5 September

  • Earthquake catalogue challenges
  • Geodetic/strain data and their use in PSHA
  • Geological input (seismogenic sources, active faults, tectonic regimes
    and regionalization)
  • Integrating geodetic, geological and seismological data
  • Time-dependent processes and anthropogenic effects
  • Uncertainty quantification and potential biases
  • Challenges related to determining the maximum possible earthquake

3 Ground Motion Predictions

Wednesday morning, 6 September

  • GMPEs (global, regional, local)
  • Replacing GMPEs with waveform modelling (California, Europe, etc.)
  • Extreme ground motions
  • Directivity, near-source effects

4 Site Characterisation

Wednesday afternoon, 6 September

  • Site classification and reference rock conditions
  • Site effect including non-linear effects
  • Micro-zonation: examples, concepts and techniques
  • Standardisation and databased data-exchange
  • Interface to building codes

5 Hazard Integration

Thursday morning, 7 September

  • Challenges and good practise in hazard calculations
  • Sensitivity analysis in seismic hazard assessment
  • Correlations (spatial, period-to-period)
  • Logic-trees, ensemble modelling and alternative models
  • Low-probability hazard (10-4 to 10-7)
  • Characterizing epistemic uncertainties
  • Validation of PSHA and model components
  • Communicating PSHA
  • Challenging the PSHA concept
  • From hazard to risk

6 Coordinating European Efforts

Thursday afternoon, 7 September

  • Recent or ongoing revisions of national hazards
  • Plans to integrate national efforts in transnational efforts
  • Hazard and risk services in Europe as part of EPOS
  • Community needs and governance

Location

Lenzburg castle, Switzerland. Lenzburg is located 20 minutes by train from Zurich main station, and about 60 minutes by train from Zurich airport.

Registration & Abstract Submission

Registration & abstract submission will open in June.

Accommodation

Mostly in Hotels in Lenzburg, within walking distance to the castle.

Local Organising Committee

Prof. Stefan Wiemer, Prof. Domenico Giardini, Dr. Florian Haslinger and Dr. Laurentiu Danciu at ETH Zurich

 

Preliminary Programme