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PSHA Workshop

Future directions for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at a local, national and transnational scale

5 to 7 September 2017 in Lenzburg, Switzerland


We have reached the capacity limit of 150 participants and unfortunately cannot accept any more participants.

Abstract submission and fellowship application was open until 7 July 2017.

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This scientific workshop brings together about 100 to 150 leading experts on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) from around the globe to discuss the current state of practice as well as future directions. The workshop will adopt a holistic point of view (i.e. interdisciplinary, multiple spatial- and temporal scales), critically reflecting all elements of modern PSHA.

Distinguished keynote speakers will introduce a range of topics, but we also call for solicited contributions (oral and poster). We will allocate sufficient time for discussions and networking, and the beautiful castle in Lenzburg offers a unique setting.

Revisiting past and ongoing site-specific projects on local, national or transnational scales, we strive to draw conclusions for future PSHA projects. We will also reflect on emerging challenges, such as time-dependence, earthquake interactions, anthropogenic seismicity, model validation, simulation based PSHA, communication of hazard results and procedural requirements for ensuring robustness, especially in the context of PSHA for critical facilities. On day three, we will focus specifically on the needs of community and harmonization projects, such as the next-generation European PSHA.

All information can be found in the preliminary programme.


Lenzburg castle, Switzerland. Lenzburg is located 20 minutes by train from Zurich main station, and about 40 minutes by train from Zurich airport.

Registration, Abstract Submission and Fellowship Application

We have reached the capacity limit of 150 participants and unfortunately cannot accept any more participants.
Abstract submission and fellowship application was open until 7 July 2017.


There are three medium-sized hotels directly in Lenzburg and several more in the vicinity, especially in the city of Aarau and the town of Wildegg (both not even 10 minutes by train from Lenzburg).

Local Organising Committee

Prof. Stefan Wiemer, Prof. Domenico Giardini, Dr. Florian Haslinger and Dr. Laurentiu Danciu at ETH Zurich

  • Prof. Norm Abrahamson, PG&E
  • Prof. John Adams, Geological Survey of Canada
  • Prof. Fabrice Cotton, GFZ
  • Dr. Helen Crowley, Eurocentre
  • Dr. Luis Dalguer, swissnuclear
  • Prof. Donat Fäh, ETH Zurich
  • Dr. Ned Field, USGS
  • Dr. Matt Gerstenberger, GNS Science
  • Prof. Domenico Giardini, ETH Zurich
  • Prof. David Jackson, UCLA
  • Prof. Martin Mai, KAUST
  • Dr. Warner Marzocchi, INGV
  • Prof. Francesco Mulargia, University of Bologna
  • Dr. Marco Pagani, GEM
  • Dr. Mark Petersen, USGS
  • Prof. Kyriazis Pitilakis, Aristotle Unversity
  • Prof. Erdal Safak, Bogazici University
  • Dr. Danijel Schorlemmer, GFZ
  • Prof. Seth Stein, Northwestern University
  • Dr. Gianluca Valensise, INGV
  • Prof. Stefan Wiemer, ETH Zurich

The workshop will be structured in six sessions:

1 Lessons Learned

  • Recent PSHA studies at local, national and transnational level e.g. SHARE, EMME, China, US, Canada, Italy, France, Switzerland, Latin America, New Zealand, GEM global effort

2 Seismogenic Source Modelling

  • Earthquake catalogue challenges
  • Geodetic/strain data and their use in PSHA
  • Geological input (seismogenic sources, active faults, tectonic regimes
    and regionalization)
  • Integrating geodetic, geological and seismological data
  • Time-dependent processes and anthropogenic effects
  • Uncertainty quantification and potential biases
  • Challenges related to determining the maximum possible earthquake

3 Ground Motion Predictions

  • GMPEs (global, regional, local)
  • Replacing GMPEs with waveform modelling (California, Europe, etc.)
  • Extreme ground motions
  • Directivity, near-source effects

4 Site Characterisation

  • Site classification and reference rock conditions
  • Site effect including non-linear effects
  • Micro-zonation: examples, concepts and techniques
  • Standardisation and databased data-exchange
  • Interface to building codes

5 Hazard Integration

  • Challenges and good practise in hazard calculations
  • Sensitivity analysis in seismic hazard assessment
  • Correlations (spatial, period-to-period)
  • Logic-trees, ensemble modelling and alternative models
  • Low-probability hazard (10-4 to 10-7)
  • Characterizing epistemic uncertainties
  • Validation of PSHA and model components
  • Communicating PSHA
  • Challenging the PSHA concept
  • From hazard to risk

6 Coordinating European Efforts

  • Recent or ongoing revisions of national hazards
  • Plans to integrate national efforts in transnational efforts
  • Hazard and risk services in Europe as part of EPOS
  • Community needs and governance